Nigeria recorded a ₦20.74tn shortfall in statutory revenue between January and October 2026, despite a sharp rise in crude oil prices amid the US-Iran conflict.
Figures from the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation show that statutory revenue reached ₦26.14tn during the 10-month period. The government had projected ₦46.87tn for the same period.
The shortfall represents 44.24 per cent of the revenue target. The figures appeared in documents prepared for the Federation Account Allocation Committee’s September meeting, according to The PUNCH.
The performance raises questions about Nigeria’s ability to turn higher global oil prices into stronger government revenue.
Nigeria Revenue Shortfall Persists Despite Higher Oil Prices
Crude prices climbed after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026. The conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas supplies.
Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude grade also recorded significant price gains. A quote dated October 22 put the grade at $123.97 per barrel, up from a pre-war average of $70.14.
That price was about 91 per cent above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. Another report quoted Bonny Light at around $115 per barrel on October 24.
However, higher crude prices have not lifted statutory revenue to the levels the government expected.
Oil prices alone do not determine government earnings. Production volumes, export receipts, exchange rates and revenue collection also affect how much money enters the Federation Account.
Monthly Revenue Remains Below Budget
The government set a monthly statutory revenue target of about ₦4.69tn throughout the period. Actual receipts fell below that benchmark every month.
Revenue started at ₦1.63tn in January and rose to ₦1.96tn in February. It then dropped to ₦1.56tn in March before recovering to ₦1.70tn in April.
Receipts improved to ₦2.38tn in May and ₦2.65tn in June. July recorded a stronger ₦3.95tn, including a ₦250bn augmentation.
Revenue reached its highest monthly level in the period in August, at ₦4.36tn. That figure came closest to the target, leaving a gap of ₦328.41bn.
However, the improvement did not last. Revenue fell to ₦2.85tn in September before recovering to ₦3.10tn in October.
October’s receipts were still ₦1.59tn below the monthly target, a shortfall of 33.94 per cent.
Revenue Improves in Second Half of 2026
The figures show a stronger revenue performance between July and October than during the first six months.
Statutory revenue totalled ₦11.88tn from January to June. The July-to-October period generated ₦14.26tn, including the July augmentation.
The four-month total exceeded the first-half figure by ₦2.38tn. However, the available figures do not establish how much of that improvement came directly from higher crude oil prices.
The sharp decline in September also showed how quickly the gains could weaken. October’s recovery failed to close the gap with the budget target.
Revenue Gap Poses Challenge for Government Spending
The revenue shortfall could complicate budget implementation for the Federal Government, state governments and local councils that depend on Federation Account allocations.
Lower-than-expected receipts can put pressure on capital projects and funding for public services. Higher oil prices can improve earnings, but Nigeria must also sustain production, export crude and collect the revenue due to the Federation.
The report separately recorded ₦39.91bn in shared Electronic Money Transfer Levy proceeds in January. It listed the levy separately from the statutory revenue figures used in the budget comparison.
Finance Minister Questions Budget Projections
The revenue figures come amid concerns about the reliability of Nigeria’s budget estimates.
Last week, Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele acknowledged that unrealistic revenue projections had contributed to repeated budget shortfalls.
Speaking at Chatham House in London, Oyedele said the country had often based its budgets on optimistic assumptions rather than realistic estimates of its earning capacity.
“We haven’t been doing the budget right. We do projections that are sometimes based on faith and hope. You don’t run a country based on faith,” he said.
Nigeria’s ₦20.74tn revenue gap highlights the challenge of meeting budget targets even when global oil prices rise sharply. The figures show that statutory receipts remain well below projections, despite the improved monthly performance recorded during parts of the second half of 2026.