Scientists have warned that 2026 could become the hottest year ever recorded as global temperatures continue to rise under the combined effects of climate change and El Niño.
The warning comes as world leaders, climate experts and government representatives gather in Antalya, Turkey, for the opening of the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31).
Berkeley Earth, an independent US climate research organisation, estimates there is a 95 per cent chance that 2026 will surpass the previous temperature record set in 2024, despite two months remaining in the year.
The organisation’s forecast highlights the growing impact of global warming, with extreme weather events affecting several parts of the world.
Recent examples include widespread wildfires across Europe and a glacier collapse in Nepal that reportedly killed more than 1,000 people.
Dr Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth said the repeated temperature records reflect the ongoing effects of global warming.
He warned that rising temperatures could trigger even more severe consequences, including collapsing glaciers, intense heatwaves and prolonged droughts.
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service also confirmed on Friday that October 2026 was the hottest October recorded.
However, Rohde cautioned that the current situation could worsen significantly in the coming years.
The primary cause of rising global temperatures remains the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released a separate assessment with a more cautious forecast.
The agency expects 2026 to rank among the four warmest years since global temperature records began.
It also warned that temperatures could remain elevated into 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño develops and continues influencing global weather patterns.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described the situation as being beyond normal expectations, saying it gives new meaning to the expression “off the charts”.
COP31 Faces Growing Pressure Over Climate Action
The latest scientific warnings have increased pressure on governments attending COP31 to agree on stronger measures against climate change.
Previous climate negotiations have largely focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to tackle the causes of global warming.
However, more countries now face the challenge of combining emissions reduction with preparations for increasingly destructive weather events.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell is expected to remind delegates that no single climate summit can resolve the crisis.
He is also expected to stress that the financial and environmental costs of global warming are already being felt worldwide.
Concerns about extreme weather have also reached government officials outside the climate negotiations.
Last month, UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting urged households and businesses to prepare for natural disasters, including disruptions to food supplies.
He pointed to recent wildfires, record temperatures and the growing threat of flooding as examples of the risks facing the country.
The UK’s Met Office has estimated that climate change made this summer’s record heat around 130 times more likely.
Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s chief scientist, also warned that societies must adjust to changing weather conditions because existing systems were designed around a climate that no longer exists.
Scientists say greenhouse gases trap additional heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, with the oceans absorbing approximately 90 per cent of the excess energy.
El Niño further increases global temperatures by releasing some of the heat stored in the oceans.
Saulo explained that the natural climate pattern does not create additional heat but releases energy from already warming ocean waters.
Current projections suggest the world could experience approximately 2.8°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
That would significantly exceed the 1.5°C limit established under the Paris Agreement to reduce the worst consequences of climate change.
What Could COP31 Achieve?
The two-week conference is expected to address several major climate priorities, including reducing fossil fuel consumption, expanding renewable energy and increasing financial support for developing countries.
Previous climate summits have produced commitments on emissions reduction, forest protection and funding for countries struggling with the effects of global warming.
Although global emissions continue to rise, renewable energy production has recorded significant growth in recent years.
The International Energy Agency projects that renewable energy capacity will expand by 57 per cent over the next six years compared with the previous period.
Stiell is expected to highlight the economic benefits of investing in clean energy, particularly as countries face rising energy costs and supply disruptions.
He reportedly noted that renewable energy saved the global economy approximately $500 billion last year.
China remains the biggest contributor to the worldwide expansion of renewable energy capacity. However, its share of new installations is expected to decline as developing countries increase their investments.
The Turkish government wants COP31 discussions to prioritise electrification, which involves shifting energy systems away from fossil fuels towards electricity.
Delegates are also expected to discuss ways to reduce energy waste.
However, disagreements over the role of natural gas could complicate negotiations.
Draft European Union proposals indicate that the bloc would support an electrification target only if countries could not use gas to meet their commitments.
The EU maintains that electrification must rely on clean energy sources to deliver meaningful climate benefits.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have previously supported the use of natural gas as a transitional alternative to coal.
Saulo said the failure of countries to reach consensus on major climate issues has contributed to the worsening effects of extreme weather.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is reportedly reluctant to introduce additional climate targets at COP31, preferring to concentrate on implementing existing commitments.
The British government has also faced criticism over expected changes to its electric vehicle targets, which environmental groups fear could undermine its long-term climate ambitions.
In September, MPs on the International Development Committee criticised the government over cuts to its foreign aid budget, warning that the reductions could affect previously announced climate funding commitments.
Wealthier countries had earlier agreed to increase financial assistance for developing nations to help them adapt to climate change. The commitment aimed to raise annual funding to at least $85 billion by 2035.
However, the latest figures for 2024 indicate that countries have delivered only about a third of the amount required.
The United Nations has warned that the damage already caused by climate change is substantial and that developing countries may need considerably more financial support.
Funding commitments could face further pressure as several governments redirect resources towards defence and emergency household support amid rising oil and gas prices linked to the Iran-US conflict.
Beyond climate finance and energy policy, COP31 delegates are also expected to discuss international artificial intelligence regulation.
Particular attention will focus on the growing electricity and water consumption of data centres supporting the rapid expansion of AI technology.
The outcome of the negotiations could shape international climate priorities and determine how governments respond to rising temperatures and increasingly severe weather events.