Tinubu: FROM KINGMAKER TO KING
BY ROTIMI DUROJAIYE
After 16 years as an opposition leader and almost eight years as national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Nigeria’s incoming President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has finally achieved his lifelong political ambition to occupy the Presidential seat.
The way to success as they say is always long and difficult. This saying captures Tinubu’s ascendancy to the president which he himself had noted as his “lifelong ambition.”
He achieved his ultimate ambition after thrashing two other formidable contestants, a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, and a former state governor, Peter Obi, in what has been described by observers as one of the toughest-fought races, with the most disparaging ad-hominem campaigns the country has ever witnessed.
He polled 8, 794, 726 to defeat his closest rival, Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party who scored 6,984, 520 and Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party who garnered 6,101,533 votes. Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigerian Peoples Party got 1,496,687 votes.
Tinubu was declared winner of the 2023 presidential election by Mahmood Yakubu, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission.
Of the 36 states and FCT, Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku won 12 states each while Kwankwaso won only Kano State.
The 12 states won by Tinubu are Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Benue, Rivers, Borno, Zamfara, Jigawa, Ondo, Kogi and Niger States.
Atiku of the PDP won Taraba, Osun, Akwa Ibom, Adamawa, Kaduna, Sokoto, Yobe, Bayelsa, Kebbi, Bauchi, Gombe and Katsina.
Obi won the following states: Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Anambra, Abia, Delta, Edo, FCT, Plateau, Nasarawa, Lagos and Cross River.
Tinubu becomes the fifth office holder since the return to democracy in 1999.
The former governor of Lagos State is a seasoned politician who has been a force on the Nigerian political scene for over three decades.
“HE HAS BEEN THE KEY FORCE BEHIND THE APC’S HOLD ON POWER IN THE SOUTH WEST AND HAS BEEN VERY INFLUENTIAL IN THE PARTY’S INTERNAL AFFAIRS”
Tinubu has loomed large in Nigeria’s political circles for decades. He went to the US for his higher studies and obtained a degree in accountancy from Chicago State University in 1979. He worked for several US companies, including Deloitte and Arthur Andersen before returning to Nigeria in 1983, when he joined Mobil Oil Nigeria and later rose to the executive level.
He cut his political teeth when he was elected a senator representing Lagos West in the short-lived ‘Third Republic’ democratic transition in 1992.
He became one of the most vocal opponents of Nigeria’s military dictatorship under the late Sani Abacha, who ruled from 1993 to 1998.
He was once forced out of the country by Abacha’s military regime and was an active member of the pro-democracy National Democratic Coalition in exile until he returned to be part of Nigeria’s new democratic dispensation in 1998.
He marks this struggle and its celebrated victory with an insignia on his signature cap – which he says is a broken shackle but bears resemblance to a horizontal figure of eight, that has become his most recognised symbol.
It was this struggle for the return of democratic governance, in which he locked horns with one of Nigeria’s most brutal regimes, and his successes as “the man who dared a General, escaped a General, conquered a General, installed a General and has succeeded a General”, as one tweet sums up his many interactions with Nigeria’s former military rulers, that many believe makes him feel entitled to the Presidential seat.
Known popularly as Jagaban by supporters, a title he was given in one of Nigeria’s northern emirates, which loosely translates as ‘leader’, Tinubu has lived up to that nickname as it relates to his mastery of the Nigerian political craft.
He has honed this gift as a master strategist for over 32 years by building a solid political base, especially in his South West stronghold but also across the country.
As national leader of the ruling APC, he is a respected figure within the party and it is believed that his role as a powerful figure, working behind the scenes has been a major influence in shaping the ruling party’s operations over the years.
He has been the key force behind the APC’s hold on power in the South West and has been very influential in the party’s internal affairs.
LONG WALK TO VICTORY
The former Lagos State governor had to weather all storms to first get the ticket of his party in June, 2022, having met stiff opposition from about 23 aspirants jostling for the ticket.
That included even his political allies from the South West zone, including Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State, Ajayi Boroffice, deputy senate leader, Ibikunle Amosun and Dimeji Bankole, former Speaker of the House of Representatives.
In the middle of the race came permutations amongst those in the corridors of power in the villa that President Buhari had an anointed candidate for the 2023 presidency and certainly not Tinubu.
This was largely due to the earlier emergence of Atiku as the presidential flag bearer of the PDP and the need for APC to also field a northern candidate.
It was part of the political calculation that led to the sudden pronouncement by Abdullahi Adamu, APC national chairman that Ahmad Lawan, president of the senate was the consensus candidate but that was roundly rejected even by his colleagues in the National Working Committee of the party.
A measure of reprieve came the way of Tinubu when APC governors and leaders from the North conceded the contest to the South and one of the aspirants, Governor Abubakar-Badaru of Jigawa State withdrew from the race with only Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State, Senate President Lawan and Sani Yerima, a former Zamfara Governor from the north in the race.
The northern APC governors and leaders in their resolution said, “After careful deliberation, we wish to state our firm conviction that after eight years in office of President Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the APC for the 2023 elections should be one of our teeming members from the southern states of Nigeria.
“It is a question of honour for the APC, an obligation that is not in any way affected by the decisions taken by another political party. We affirm that upholding this principle is in the interest of building a stronger, more united and more progressive country.
“We therefore wish to strongly recommend to President Muhammadu Buhari that the search for a successor as the APC’s presidential candidate be limited to our compatriots from the southern states. We appeal to all aspirants from the northern states to withdraw in the national interest and allow only the aspirants from the south to proceed to the primaries.”
After the resolution, Buhari had ordered that a consensus should be reached among the southern aspirants, but all their meetings were deadlocked.
The development forced the President to summon a national caucus meeting of the APC but no resolution was reached.
Not deterred, Tinubu continued with the horse trading, seeking the intervention of stakeholders, including traditional rulers, especially from the South West.
The intervention by southern political leaders and traditional rulers from the South West worked as aspirants from the zone except Osinbajo stepped down for Tinubu at the convention, in addition to those from other parts of the country.
Godswill Akpabio, a former Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Amosun, Fayemi and Bankole stepped down for the former Lagos governor.
Others were Mohammed Abubakar-Badaru, Governor of Jigawa State; Ajayi Boroffice, deputy senate leader and Uju Kennedy, the only female aspirant in the race.
With this development, it became an easy sail for the APC national leader who won the ticket.
This was after his famous Abeokuta declaration that it is now his turn to be Nigeria’s President, especially after helping Buhari to assume the seat.
“If not for me standing behind Buhari, he wouldn’t have become the president. He tried the first time, he failed, the second time, he failed, the third time, he failed, he even wept on a national television and vowed never to contest again but I went to meet him in Kaduna and told him he will run again, I will stand by you and you will win, but you must not joke with Yorubas and he agreed.
“Since he became the president, I have never got ministerial slots, I didn’t collect any contract, I have never begged for anything from him, it is the turn of Yoruba, it is my turn,” Tinubu had declared in Abeokuta.
For those who contested with him to the ballot like Lawan, he said, “The Senate President, Senator Ahmad Lawan, I would have been a little upset because you competed with me but that is over now since you can easily leak your wounds. It doesn’t take away from thanking you for the past cooperation and cool-headedness to build our country.”
After scaling the hurdles of getting the APC ticket, the Asiwaju of Lagos came under the gaze of the public about his certificates submitted at the Independent National Electoral Commission.
For instance, a civil society group known as Center for Reform and Public Advocacy issued a 48-hour ultimatum to President Buhari and the Inspector General of Police to arrest and prosecute Tinubu for allegedly supplying false information to INEC.
According to the group, Tinubu lied in his EC9 form published by INEC when he claimed that he did not attend both primary and secondary school.
The Center said the submission of Tinubu contradicted earlier claims, particularly the information he gave to the electoral umpire in 1999 in his form CF 001.
Kalu Agu, Legal Adviser of the group, had said, “We wrote a petition to the IG on June 16, demanding the prosecution of Tinubu for providing false information on oath in his INEC form CF 001 which he submitted in 1999.
“Since the IG is yet to act on the petition, we are using this press conference to call on the IG to do the needful, he is not above the law, nobody is above the law, Sections 191 and 192 make it a criminal offence to provide false information on oath. We are also calling on President Buhari to direct the IG to arrest and prosecute Tinubu for perjury, it is a very serious issue.”
That obstacle too was jumped by the Jagaban.
RUNNING MATE DEBACLE
Then came the issue of a running mate or vice presidential candidate for which he first submitted the name of Kabir Masari, a former national welfare secretary of the APC as a placeholder for his running mate to meet up with INEC deadline.
Thereafter, Tinubu exploited the latitude in Section 31 of the Electoral Act, 2022.
It provides that: “A candidate may withdraw his or her candidature by notice in writing signed by him and delivered personally by the candidate to the political party that nominated him for the election and the political party shall convey such withdrawal to the Commission not later than 90 days to the election.”
He then named Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State and Masari, the placeholder withdrew for the place owner.
That too came with a price for Tinubu due to apprehension, especially by the Christian community, despite insistence that the choice was based on competence and who he could work with.
For instance, the Christian Association of Nigeria said the situation in the country presently was not suitable for a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the presidency.
“DESPITE THE HARD WAY HE SECURED HIS VICTORY, TINUBU IS GOING TO THE ASO ROCK VILLA WITH A REPUTATION OF A SUCCESSFUL GOVERNOR, PARTY BUILDER AND POLITICAL STRATEGIST”
Bayo Oladeji, Special Assistant on Media and Communication to CAN President had in his reaction to the choice of Shettima as the running mate of Tinubu, said, “CAN has stated it clearly that the situation in the country now is not suitable for a Muslim-Muslim ticket. It is up to Nigerians to accept or reject.”
Tinubu also parted ways with his political associates and strategists, including Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to Government of the Federation; Yakubu Dogara; former House of Representatives Speaker, Elisha Abbo, a senator from Adamawa and Daniel Bwala, amongst others, who worked against him at the general election.
Though APC did not experience major implosion in the build up to the general elections, the composition of the presidential campaign council almost pitched the party’s NWC against the candidate.
The Adamu-led NWC of the APC had in a leaked letter disapproved of what it called ‘solo’ presidential campaign council constituted by Tinubu.
The APC chairman in the letter said, “The NWC received with astonishment and regret, the press release by the council last Friday in which a purported list of appointees was announced, which effectively served as the approved roster of participants in the party’s presidential Campaign Council.
“Perhaps it has become necessary owing to the passage of time, that I should draw Your Excellency’s attention to the agreements that we reached in principle around the final adoption of the PCC list, based on the understanding that it was a work in progress, until such a time that the Joint NWC/PCC Committee that was established to formalise the structure and populate the list, submits its report.
“The NWC believes that any sign of disarray in the party’s ranks will undermine the spirit and ethos of the campaign and give undue alarm to faithful members and followers of the party across the country.
“At the same, such a development would undoubtedly come as “Manna from Heaven” for the opposition parties, whose only desire when all else fails, is to see the introduction of rancour, division and disinclination in the leadership of our great party.”
After that was resolved, the APC presidential candidate had to face Nigerians to campaign in the face of despair of the people attributed to the poor governance of the country by his party under the leadership of Buhari.
It became seemingly difficult to convince Nigerians that he be voted on the platform of the party under which there is general insecurity and harsh economic realities.
At a point when confronted with the stark reality at the Chatham House, he tactically distanced himself from the failed economic promises of the APC-led administration under Buhari.
He said, “I guess my name is Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the current President is Muhammadu Buhari and there is nowhere in the Constitution that says that a current administration cannot be continuity in some ways. It doesn’t remove me from my adaptation to my economic philosophy and developmental programme. I did it in Lagos.”
Close to election, Tinubu faced another hurdle with the introduction of the cashless policy and currency swap, which many, including his opponents, approved of as a means of weakening his financial war chest to prosecute the election and instigating the people against him because of the hardship that came with it.
The former Lagos governor’s political close ally and a member of his think tank, Nasir El-Rufai, alleged that the policy pivots were weapons in the arsenal of a cabal in the presidential villa against the APC candidate.
Tinubu himself cried out at a campaign rally, again in Abeokuta.
He said, “Let them increase the price of fuel, let them continue to hoard fuel… They hoarded money, they hoarded naira; we will go and vote and we will win. Even if they change the ink on naira notes, whatever their plans, it will come to naught. We are going to win. Those in the PDP will lose.”
Then the election proper came, and against all the odds, including his losing Lagos where he is considered the landlord, and winning only Jigawa and Borno States controlled by APC governors who promised to deliver him, Tinubu crossed the shark infested political ocean.
In what would have been the last straw that broke the camel’s back, a trio of opposition parties, PDP, LP and the African Democratic Congress, seeing that results of the election favoured Tinubu, called for the outright cancellation of the presidential polls.
Chairmen of the parties, Iyorchia Ayu, Julius Abure and Ralph Nwosu, respectively, who spoke at a press conference in Abuja, described the collation of results by INEC as a travesty and rape of democracy.
They noted that the results announced by INEC so far showed monumental disparities between the actual results reported by their party agents, members, and millions of Nigerians, on election day from the polling units.
“President Muhammadu Buhari, this is a time of great test of your integrity to use your office to save Nigeria from this electoral heist and save your legacy from the forces that seek to mar your democratic credentials.
“We do not want our people to take the laws into their hands and want the entire election cancelled, because the damage that has been done is not what you can correct, the numerous challenges is because the process has been marred by irregularities right from the beginning of the process,” the coalition said.
This was just after the agents of the parties, led by their PDP counterpart, staged a walk out of the national collation centre, claiming that being there would be tantamount to endorsing an illegality.
By his victory in the presidential election, Tinubu became the third person from the South West to be elected president in 30 years and in the entire history of the country.
However, the election of the first person, Moshood Abiola, was annulled and he died in prison under the military while insisting on the de-annulment of the 1993 presidential elections and revalidation of his mandate.
Despite the hard way he secured his victory, Tinubu is going to the Aso Rock Villa with a reputation of a successful governor, party builder and political strategist. This will raise expectations among Nigerians and outside the country about the prospects of Nigeria on his watch.
