If there was anything I was worried about when President Bola Tinubu took the baton of the highest office in Nigeria from late former President Muhammadu Buhari, it was the dilemma he would face in settling the complex IOUs emanating from the many political and professional blocs that ensured his slim victory in the keenly contested 2023 presidential election.
Although the title “Jagaban” conferred on him by the late Emir of Borgu, His Royal Highness, Alhaji Haliru Dantoro III, means “Leader of Warriors”, my own interpretation of Jagaban, even from its sound, is “master strategist”.
His worst critics can attest to the fact that he is not one to surround himself with mediocre players, considering his probably unrivalled track record of anointing successive achievers that made Lagos an indisputable reference point in Nigeria’s history of socio-economic development.
Despite staying out of direct political authority for 16 years, not a few people believed that Tinubu’s global exposure, private sector background and widely acknowledged political acumen would be useful ingredients in the quest for the desired economic transformation in Nigeria.
Yes, quite a few analysts warned against certain negatives being ‘hawked’ in the mainstream media and on social media platforms. But I chose my faith in the already demonstrated positives over the gloomy picture.
More than two years later, as an economist, I know that, regardless of economic pains that cannot be ignored, it would be misleading to say that the current administration, despite its early days of wobbling, has not managed to deliver some wins by adjusting unintended policy errors.
For instance, the Central Bank of Nigeria, in its macroeconomic outlook for Nigeria, 2026, said the performance of the Nigerian economy remained strong in 2025, with a 3.89 per cent estimated growth, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024. Consumer Price Inflation also ended the year 2025 with an estimated average of 21.26 per cent, from 24.48 per cent in January.
Although there have been different expert interpretations of the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CBN attributed the marginal improvement to its tight monetary policy stance, exchange rate stability and improved monetary and fiscal policy coordination.
Nigeria’s equity market also delivered one of its strongest performances in 2025, crossing the N100tn market capitalisation mark with an All Share Index, which posted a good 51.19 per cent return and closed the year at 155,613.03 points.
Other major indices may also be heading north currently, but many Nigerians don’t understand the economic jargon. So, how do these translate into better standards of living for 130 million poor Nigerians when unpardonable budget implementation blunders have made real gains invisible? How, for instance, can anyone explain a situation where a sector as important as health would get only a paltry N36m, out of N218bn appropriated for it in 2025?
If the revelation had come from any other official than the Minister of Health, Prof. Muhammad Pate, I would have discarded it as opposition propaganda. The professor said, while his ministry’s entire personnel budget was released and fully expended, the capital component was not, and my first reaction was: no, not under Jagaban!
How, just how will medical tourism not continue to drain Nigeria’s resources while the poor majority bear the brunt when there are no genuine efforts to develop world-class health infrastructure other than paper figures?
Yet, this is just one of the many critical sectors, like education, among others, suffering the same fate. If many of the ministries, departments and agencies in charge of the key sectors have not displayed worrisome budget implementation figures publicly, the unending protests by local contractors over alleged N2.2tn unpaid debts should point to imminent danger.
The President, no doubt, desires to leave the best of legacies across sectors, as evidenced by his speeches and actions since assuming office. But the saying that a leader is as good as his team has resonated loudly with the gaps being created by poor implementation under his administration.
Appointees were selected to help actualise the vision of the administration and must escalate impediments, in real time, to their employers and not wait for the next year’s budget defence to give ridiculous excuses for past failure. If they have been afraid to rock the boat so as not to step on toes, perhaps, this is the right time for the President to show his preference for competent radicals rather than complacent laggards.
It is heartwarming that President Tinubu, in his last budget speech, promised that 2026 would be a year of stronger discipline with respect to budget execution.
“I have issued directives to the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, the Honourable Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, the Accountant General of the Federation, and the Director General of the Budget Office of the Federation to ensure that the 2026 budget is implemented strictly in line with the appropriated details and timelines,” Tinubu said.
While I don’t doubt the President’s sincerity on this issue, the promise would be hard to keep in a season when election spending is usually disguised under capital expenditure. Nigerians must watch their backs.
Moreover, it is important to note that while we continue to analyse the effects of starving key ministries of the funds needed for developmental projects, we must also make a case for viable joint venture arrangements for greater efficiency and accountability if Nigeria must truly achieve age-long goals.
Tim Harford, a popular English economist known for his ‘Dear Economist’ column in the Financial Times, investigated why poor countries remained poor, using Cameroon as a case study. He found that development specialists usually tried to help poor countries get richer by improving primary education and public infrastructure.
He, however, said that as sensible as that approach looked, it was misguided because it focused on only a small part of the problem. According to Harford, a thieving leadership is a bigger problem than decaying infrastructure and parlous education systems.
This may explain why huge sums that had been released for capital budgets under previous administrations in Nigeria, instead of transforming the key sectors, left them worse off. Therefore, as we call for adequate funding of developmental projects, we must also “shine our eyes” against good old thievery!
By Yemi Kolapo