Nigeria’s oil revenue sharing formula could soon witness a significant adjustment following the submission of a comprehensive verification report to the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC).
The report, delivered on Friday to RMAFC Chairman Mohammed Shehu, contains the outcome of a six-month nationwide technical audit of oil and gas assets. The exercise, conducted between August 2025 and February 2026, re-examined crude oil and gas coordinates across producing regions from 2017 to 2025.
At the heart of the review is the likely reclassification of Cross River as an oil-producing state — a move that could alter derivation revenue allocations among states.
The inter-agency committee responsible for the audit comprised officials from RMAFC, the National Boundary Commission, the Office of the Surveyor-General of the Federation, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Hydrographic Agency, the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, and security agencies.
Rather than relying on administrative records, the committee adopted a scientific approach, verifying over 1,000 oil and gas coordinates using confirmed onshore and offshore reservoir data. More than 12 states were visited during the field assessment, including Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Ondo, Imo, Anambra, Abia and Cross River.
The exercise also addressed multiple long-standing inter-state boundary overlaps, including disputes between Rivers and Akwa Ibom; Delta and Edo; Delta and Ondo; Imo and Rivers; Imo and Anambra; as well as Akwa Ibom and Cross River.
According to officials familiar with the process, oil well attributions were determined by geological evidence and hydrographic verification, particularly where reservoirs straddle state boundaries.
The findings indicate that most oil-producing states may gain additional well attributions from the newly verified coordinates. However, the most consequential outcome appears to be Cross River’s projected return to the list of oil-producing states for the first time since 2008.
Technical projections in the report suggest the state could be credited with more than 100 producing wells, largely linked to OML 114 within its maritime domain.
Nonetheless, the 2012 Supreme Court ruling on maritime boundaries is expected to preserve 76 oil wells for Akwa Ibom pending further judicial clarification. Even with those deductions, officials describe Cross River’s geological claim as strongly supported by empirical reservoir data.
Fiscal analysts note that the report distinguishes between administrative classifications and physical reservoir realities — a distinction that may reshape how derivation funds are calculated going forward.
Implementation now depends on presidential approval. RMAFC Chairman Shehu is awaiting assent from President Bola Tinubu before the Commission’s Board of Commissioners can adopt the recommendations and formalise adjustments to Nigeria’s official list of oil-producing states.
If approved, the changes would influence derivation allocations under the revenue sharing formula, potentially increasing statutory inflows to Cross River while recalibrating distributions to other states affected by the reattribution exercise.
Observers describe the development as a technically driven reset of Nigeria’s oil revenue framework — one that may redefine fiscal relationships among producing states based on verified geological data rather than administrative precedent.